Can The Saints Overcome The Irish
The ferocity of the much discussed Manu Tuilagi punch (or punches) won’t have anything on the sustained intensity of the collisions in the Heineken Cup final this Saturday evening. Talking to reporters Tuesday, Jamie Heaslip, the Leinster and Ireland No.8, said that his teammates would need to ‘be in a coffin’ should they wish to withdraw themselves from selection, and you get the feeling that similarly debilitating cause would be required for most of these men to leave the field once the game has started.
It will be brutal, which is precisely the way Northampton Saints want it. This cliché that Northampton are a ‘direct’ and uncomplicated side is a cliché for a damn fine reason. They want to blow you away in the scrum, they aim to carry hard and they try to knock you back in the tackle. Dynamism and power is the key, it is the reason they replaced Euan Murray with Brian Mujati and Neil Best with Tom Wood, and the reason they quickly withdrew any plans to make Shane Geraghty into a playmaking 12 over the oaklike James Downey. There is no great invention to their play, with their half-backs acting as facilitators rather than creators, choosing to hit runners on the gainline at depth after only one or two passes and virtually refusing, bar the odd Foden led counter-attack, to play any rugby in their own half. It is nonetheless effective and their record of eight wins in eight Heineken Cup games this season is proof that, providing the execution is good enough, their opponents have found it impossible to stop what they know is coming.
A Real S.O.B.
Leinster are markedly more imaginative and multifaceted in their play. Like all the best sides they rely on quick ball, both their scrum-halves can crumble without it, but they look to vary the point of attack off of every phase, whether looking for an inside runner, Gordon D’Arcy on the crash, Jonathan Sexton on the loop or Isa Nacewa hitting the line in midfield. The incredible thing is that even with that invention and lack of prescription in their play, the whole team is incredibly in sync with one another and they appear preternaturally able find themselves in support of the ball and its carrier, something that is an incredible testament to the work-rate of this Leinster side and in particular their back-row. It is often said that Leinster and Ireland have been supremely advantaged by the defensive technique of their centre pairing, and though that is true it does a disservice to the forwards in front of them. Sean O’Brien the young multi-purpose backrow from farming-stock, has rightfully received plaudits for the way he bust tackles in his eye-catching carries, but the truly stunning thing is the frequency with which he offers himself for the carry, the amount of rucks he hits and the amount of tackles he makes. A level of fitness and hard-work that is backed up by Heaslip, the hooker Richardt Strauss and whichever one of the other four or five Heineken Cup-quality back-rowers they choose to select.
The Front Row Saints
It seems that virtually everyone with even a passing knowledge of the game has made Leinster favourites, some considerably so. In a surprisingly unguarded moment, the current Ireland defence coach Less Kiss said, on the Ruggamatrix podcast, that he expected Leinster to win by two scores. While it is true that Leinster are a better team and by enlarge have better players, finals are virtually always a tight affair, and this one promises to be no different because Northampton want to turn the game into a Tonga’uiha sized arm wrestle and in Romain Poite they have a referee who will allow them to do so. Poite is in no way biased, as some of the Irish media and supporters (mostly based in Munster) claim, and he is consistent in his interpretations, but his style routinely leads to matches turning into slugfests, in antithesis to the drive towards increased fluency by the IRB. He does not seem to care about the offside line, he allows the team in possession to seal off with impunity, he lets defences slow ball but very rarely steal it and, quite importantly, he tends to significantly favour the scrum going forward irrespective of the way that dominance is achieved. Some journalists have praised the decisive way in which he adjudicates the scrum contest, but they fail to give credence to the fact that dominance is not always gained legally. Northampton have a very powerful scrum, the timing of their eight-man shove on opposition ball can be legitimately awesome, but they frequently cheat, having Dylan Hartley drive up or Tonga’uiha across. If Hartley has taken a step forward before he pops up you can be pretty certain he will not be penalised. Leinster’s scrum has undoubtedly improved since the ignoble thrashing at the hands of Toulouse last year, but they will still struggle to match Northampton for brute strength, in which case Poite’s perception of any illegality will be vital.
Even if the Northampton scrum secures the upper hand, their ability to maintain possession could be threatened at the lineout. Though I believe Tom Wood has been considerably overhyped this year, he is an excellent lineout forward and Hartley will miss having him there to take and disrupt ball. Hartley’s accuracy out of touch has improved significantly over the last year, but last week Tom Croft or Leicester showed that he can be got at, and Leinster have reportedly chose to select Kevin McLaughlin (who toyed with the Leicester lineout in the quarter-final) over Shane Jennings to do just that.
Mclaughlin Rises High
Like most games, this final will probably come down to who can best secure quick possession and who will succeed in slowing down the opposition. Unfortunately for Northampton, Leinster have a major advantage in the back-row, and though Poite will be a leveller, he will not contribute enough to stop the Irish team from dictating the terms of the contact area. This is a young and relatively callow Northampton team with a handful of exceptional athletes, but they do not seem to have the tools to beat what is the most well rounded team European rugby has seen for at least the last five or six years.