The Pan-European Competition Where Everygame Counts
There have been some fantastically crappy columns from noted football writers about how the Champions League is finished as a spectacle, their argument has basically been that the group stages are too lopsided and as a result the tournament is becoming boring. They are obviously wrong, it is admirable that Platini wants the competition to be legitimately wide in scope, though thankfully his push for extensive representation of minnows has only been pushed so far. In fact much of the caterwauling seems to stem from the realisation that the Premier League teams are going to find it tough again in a competition where they can no longer out-spend everyone else. The strength of the Champions League lies in its diversity, you may have Brazilians playing everywhere, but 18 countries are represented. That said, if you want to watch a cross-border European sporting event where you have legitimate strength in depth then you only have to look at the Heineken Cup.
The Heineken Cup is currently only contested by six Unions, but in terms of strength it is incomparable to its Football equivalent. Whereas half of the Champions League’s 32 qualify for the knock-out rounds, from groups where seeding deigns that smaller sides are at a huge disadvantage, in the Heineken Cup only eight teams qualify from six groups of 24, where you will almost always have three if not four hugely competitive sides. The consequence is not just that the quality of competition is high, but that Sky, the exclusive broadcaster, gets three or four marquee matchups every round, the Champions League rights-holders are lucky to get one until the knock-outs commence.
The forthcoming Heineken Cup is as wide open as it is intriguing. The story of last year was the French sides, blessed with the largest budgets in Europe, coming back from a failure in 2009 to have both 2010 finalists, and the English shifting into reverse, having only Northampton escape the pool stage. On the face of it, the trend looks to have continued, it is the French sides like Racing Metro and Toulon who have recruited the big stars, Racing acquiring Juan Martin Hernandez, 2007 IRB player of the year, and potential French great Benjamin Fall, while Toulon have signed two Southern Hemisphere superstars in Carl Hayman and George Smith. They look placed to join Toulouse, Clermont and Biarritz at the top of the ladder. Castres will be willing, but they lack the squad depth, if not the metronomic kicker in ‘the machine’ Romain Tuelet, to make much of an impact, while Perpignan have the pack to dismantle anyone, particularly in Catalonia, unfortunately they are suffering from a ton of injuries and they have real question marks at half-back. It is a cliché to talk about the French in regard attitude and flakiness, but if they are to cope away as well as they do at home, then they will be hugely difficult to stop.
The Italians have got much stronger too, particularly by virtue of their entrance into the Magners League, Treviso have expanded and consolidated their squad, while the newly created Aironi, with their host of current and ex-Italian internationals, is much stronger than anything put out by Viadana or Parma in the past. Both will be targeting a couple of home wins and opposition will no longer be able to count on guaranteed bonus points
On the other hand the squads in England continue their curve of contraction. Bath and Saracens have made the biggest moves, bringing in the likes of Vesty and Moody, and Stevens and Strettle, but those players are replacements for others who have retired or departed, and both squads have notable weaknesses along with inconsistent tournament pedigree. Leicester will always be competitive, but their squad is virtually the same as that which failed to advance last year. Northampton, the sole English qualifier in 2010, will be interesting, their gameplan is built around a ton of power up front with carriers from 1-8, a big midfield and great finishing from the back three, but they lack depth and as their losses to Munster last year and Saracens two weekends back showed, if you can live with them up front and pressure their half-backs, they can struggle. Behind that London-Irish will be stronger this year as they are healthier, but for as long as their key player Steffon Armitage is out they will find it difficult to replicate the brilliant attacking display that decimated Newcastle against better sides. While Wasps are a bit of a curate’s egg, despite the presence of Shaun Edwards their defence has been remarkably porous of late and they no longer have a dominant pack, but their side does have a ton of pace and are able to cause teams problems.
The Celtic sides have largely continued as is, Ulster have made the biggest moves in the transfer market, bringing in three Springboks including the gifted if inconsistent Ruan Pienaar. Cardiff were close behind bringing in arguably the player of the 2010 Six Nations, Dan Parks, alongside Michael Patterson a guy many presumed to be a future All Black. Leinster have seen a massive upheaval in their coaching ranks, which has seen them hit worrying form in the domestic competition, but they have the talent to click, and the return of Sexton in the victory over Munster last weekend is huge for them. The Ospreys were relatively quiet in the transfer market, but they have a very strong squad, and once again it will be a case of whether they can put all their elements together and 21 year old Dan Biggar can fulfil his promise at fly-half. Munster go into the season largely unchanged, with Sam Tuitupou and Johne Murphy the only major additions in place of Jean De Villiers, much of their fortune will depend on how long it takes for their captain and talisman Paul O’Connell and their most dangerous back, Keith Earls, to regain fitness. The Scottish sides will likely struggle this year, they are both facing a glut of injuries and a few key losses such as Ali Hogg and Jim Hamilton from Edinburgh and Dan Parks and Kelly Brown from Glasgow, though the latter have a 19 year old out-half with a monster boot in Duncan Weir who might soon push for International honours. The Scarlets and Dragons both have had very little turnover in the Summer, both have some very good young players developing, like Jonathan Davies, George North and Dan Lydiate, but they will struggle to compete against the best sides and will be targeting home wins and respectability.
Pool 1
Edinburgh – Castres – Northampton Saints – Cardiff Blues
At first glance this looks to be a two horse race, Northampton and Cardiff games will likely decide the group, and they will be very powerful contests between two big and athletic sides, but Castres have a pack to be reckoned with at home and a couple of very good players out wide in Cameron McIntyre and the electric Marc Andreu (the pocketest rocket since Shane Williams), while Edinburgh can frustrate anyone in Murrayfield.
Prediction – Cardiff to win
Pool 2
Leinster – Clermont – Saracens – Racing Metro
Pool of Death 1: The Frenchening. After the quarter-final implosion of Brock James last year the Clermont and Leinster duels will be fascinating, much like Northampton, Clermont look to pound teams into submission, but they do so with a huge backline too. Only one side is making it out of this one. Leinster have had a poor start to the season, but they do have the pedigree and in Jamie Heaslip, one of the best players in the entire competition. At the Chabal led Racing, currently leading the Top14, the aforementioned Benjamin Fall has the ability to become one of the best ever French wingers, and the side is so loaded they have struggled to accommodate Hernandez. Despite coming second in the Guiness Premiership last year, Saracens might struggle, they lack dynamism up front outside of Schalk Brits and they will really miss the control that the recently retired Glen Jackson gave them.
Prediction – Racing Metro (if they take the competition seriously)
Pool 3
Munster – Ospreys – London Irish – Toulon
Pool of Death 2: It’s Just Not Fair. Much like pool 3, there will very likely only be one team left standing come the end of January. It is hard to back against Munster, but they need key players fit, particularly Earls who is their primary weapon out wide to keep defences honest. The Ospreys seem to be on an upward curve after winning the Magners League last year, but questions remain over their temperament and their set-piece is dodgy. Last season was not a great reflection on the ability of London Irish, they were decimated by injury for large parts of the year, the problem for them will be the lack of dynamism up front, they need more carriers, and Lamb to remain steady at 10, when firing they have the pace and power out wide to eviscerate sides. Toulon are entering the Heineken Cup for the first time behind the boot of Johnny Wilkinson, they have the XV to challenge, but Phillipe Saint Andre is an archetypically idiosyncratic French coach, and over the last 18 months they have often failed to gel into the sum of their parts.
Prediction – Munster to edge in on four wins by virtue of an extra bonus
Pool 4
Biarritz – Bath – Ulster – Aironi
Biarritz seem to trundle along and advance every year despite playing up and down rugby, largely on the coat-tails of Yachvilli’s boot and intelligence, but this year will be tough. With Traille still out and Hunt gone, their midfield is questionable and their pack has been found wanting in some big domestic games. Bath were a hot-pick at the start of the season, but their front five are limited and if Banahan and Hape’s power is stopped out wide, their attack can lose all of its focus. Ulster will be very interesting, three big signings have strengthened them immeasurably and they look to have the pack and set-piece to take it to anyone, but question marks at 10 and 15 could prevent them from capitalising on any dominance earned up front. Aironi are there to make up numbers, they are a newly formed team who is still taking time to gel, but they have enough experience to ruin someone else’s hopes of advancing.
Prediction – Ulster to shock Bath away and top group
Pool 5
Leicester Tigers – Scarlets – Perpignan – Benetton Treviso
Leicester will be hugely grateful to have Flood back as they have really missed his direction at 10. They are surely favourites for the group, but alongside that, apart from at prop, they do not look anywhere near as strong as in the past. The Scarlet’s backs are going to cause opposition problems with their speed and strength, but they will not have the forwards to test the opposition, particularly away. Perpignan are another French side that can beat anyone upfront, but they are prone to capitulating away and they lack a commanding influence at half-back, they should have a strong chance to qualify if they can reverse last year’s loss to Treviso away. That win over Perpignan was probably Treviso’s biggest result in Europe to date and they are a team that is definitely getting better, as seen by their very respectable start to the Magners League, and they will look to win at home.
Prediction – Leicester and Perpignan to qualify
Pool 6
Toulouse – London Wasps – Glasgow Warriors – Newport Gwent Dragons
Pool of Fail: Why couldn’t (insert your team here) have had this group. Toulouse should take this at a canter, they are big, quick and skilful across the park and they will be aiming for six wins to ensure a home QF. Wasps simply aren’t very good, they have lost too many key players to age or other clubs, but they do have real pace and finishing ability in the likes of Simpson, Varnell, Lemi and Haughton, which will likely allow them to accumulate enough points. Glasgow are playing very limited rugby that has been sporadically effective so far this season, particularly as their new out-half can kick from anywhere inside 60m, but they will have to expand their horizons to compete away from home. The Dragons seem to have gone backwards, their set-piece has gone to the dogs and they really need guys to step up or it could be a very tough campaign.
Prediction – Toulouse and Wasps to advance